A recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) paints a grim picture of the human cost of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. The think tank estimates that Russia will likely surpass one million casualties – a combination of killed and wounded soldiers – by this summer. This figure represents a staggering milestone, highlighting the immense brutality and scale of the conflict.
The report details that approximately 250,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, a number that is five times greater than the combined Russian and Soviet military deaths in all wars since World War II. Ukraine has also suffered significant losses, with an estimated 400,000 casualties, including a range of 60,000 to 100,000 deaths. This devastating toll underscores President Vladimir Putin’s apparent disregard for the lives of his own soldiers, as well as the immense suffering inflicted upon the Ukrainian people.
These figures align with previous estimates from Western intelligence agencies, which suggest that Russia is experiencing daily losses of around 1,000 soldiers. Since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, Russia’s military advances have been painfully slow, averaging a mere 165 feet per day and resulting in the capture of only 1% of Ukrainian territory since January 2024. This glacial pace is comparable to the notoriously costly Somme offensive of World War I.
Despite these heavy losses, Russia continues its aggression, launching almost nightly attacks on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure using bombers and drones. Ukraine, however, is not without its own retaliatory capabilities. Recent operations, such as the “Spiderweb” drone attack on multiple Russian air bases, demonstrate Ukraine’s capacity to strike deep within Russian territory. Further, Ukrainian intelligence agencies have even targeted key infrastructure, such as the Crimean Bridge, a vital link for Russian military supplies.
The conflict’s trajectory remains uncertain. While some believe that Russia possesses a battlefield advantage due to its larger population and greater military manufacturing capacity, others argue that these losses are unsustainable, particularly if Western support for Ukraine continues. Former MI6 head Richard Dearlove, in an interview with NBC News, predicted that Russia’s military capabilities will decline significantly starting this summer due to dwindling resources and motivation. However, he also emphasized Putin’s unwavering commitment to his current course of action.
Despite several rounds of American-brokered peace talks in Istanbul, no significant progress has been made. Russia demands Ukraine’s complete surrender, while Ukraine seeks a ceasefire but refuses to accept such a drastic capitulation. The involvement of President Donald Trump in the peace process adds another layer of complexity, with his shifting stance and offers of concessions to Moscow creating further uncertainty about the path forward.
